The Executive Director of the Uganda Bureau of Statistics (UBOS), Dr. Chris N. Mukiza, welcomed a special delegation from the United Nations to Uganda. The visit, led by Dr. Patrick Gerland, Chief of Population Estimates and Projections at the UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs (UNDESA), marks a big step forward for Uganda in modernizing how it plans for its future population.
The purpose of this visit is to train UBOS staff and key partners in using the advanced Bayesian model, a modern method of projecting population trends. This training also includes participants from the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), the National Planning Authority (NPA), the Ministry of Health (MOH), and Makerere University. This new model will help Uganda generate population forecasts for both national and district levels from 2024 to 2063.
Dr. Mukiza expressed his excitement about this development. He noted that moving away from spreadsheet-based forecasting to a scientific and data-driven model like Bayesian will improve the accuracy of Uganda’s population projections. The model is powerful because it can estimate important population indicators such as fertility rates, death rates, life expectancy, and migration. This will help Uganda make better plans for healthcare, education, housing, and employment in the years to come.
Dr. Gerland also praised Uganda for its commitment and eagerness to learn this advanced method. He explained that the Bayesian model is very useful because it takes into account previous knowledge and helps to measure uncertainty. This means it does not just give one number for the future population it shows a range of possibilities, making planning more flexible and reliable.
What makes this visit even more special is that Uganda is the first country in Africa to receive training in this model. This sets a strong example for other countries on the continent. The partnership between UBOS and the UN is a big step toward better planning and smarter decision-making for Uganda’s future.
With this training and new skills, Uganda is now better prepared to face the future with confidence, backed by strong data and modern tools.
