The World Bank has warned that global economic growth is expected to slow to 2.3% in 2025. This is nearly half a percentage point lower than the growth rate earlier this year and represents the weakest expansion since 2008, outside of global recessions. Such a slowdown poses challenges, particularly for developing countries like Uganda, whose economies are closely linked to global trends.
Drawing from decades of experience in economic transformation and wealth creation, it is clear that global economic conditions can directly affect local markets. To counter these challenges, Uganda must focus on boosting its export sector while adding value to locally produced goods. Strengthening exports not only increases revenue but also creates jobs and drives overall economic growth.
A promising example is Uganda’s coffee sector. In the financial year 2024/25, Uganda earned USD 2.2 billion from coffee exports—almost double the USD 1.14 billion earned the previous year. This increase was fueled by high export volumes, with 7.7 million bags, or 462,000 tonnes, shipped abroad. However, there is still room to grow. By adding value to coffee and other local products, ensuring fair trade, and expanding market access, Uganda can unlock even greater economic potential. The global coffee value chain alone exceeds USD 136 billion, highlighting the massive opportunities available.
Enhancing Uganda’s export sector requires more than production—it demands strategic investment. Providing affordable capital, building human capital, and improving market competitiveness are crucial steps. These efforts will strengthen Uganda’s ability to weather global slowdowns and maintain sustainable economic growth.
At the Bank of Uganda, the strategic plan for 2022-2027 emphasizes promoting macroeconomic stability, developing the financial sector, and achieving sustainable, people-centred growth. Beyond traditional monetary policy, the focus extends to inclusive growth and economic resilience, ensuring that development benefits all Ugandans, not just a few.
As the world faces a weakening economic outlook, Uganda has the tools and potential to turn challenges into opportunities. By focusing on exports, value addition, and human capital development, the country can build a resilient economy that benefits everyone. Macroeconomic stability, financial sector development, and inclusive growth remain the cornerstones of this strategy, guiding Uganda through uncertain times toward a prosperous future.
