President Yoweri Museveni no longer needs political support from the Buganda Kingdom to stay in power, says respected political analyst Daniel Kalinaki. His comments have sparked debate across the country, especially after a frosty welcome was given to some of Museveni’s close allies during the recent celebrations of Kabaka Mutebi II’s reign in Buganda. The chilly atmosphere revealed a growing distance between the central government and the Buganda region.
According to Kalinaki, Museveni has built his power on more than just public support. He controls key parts of the state such as the military, intelligence agencies, finances, and top government offices. These tools, Kalinaki argues, give Museveni enough strength to run the country even without votes from Buganda. He said, “With his firm grip on all the levers of the state, Museveni doesn’t need Buganda’s vote to stay in power. He can sidestep the region politically and still run the show.”
Once a major stronghold for Museveni’s NRM party, Buganda has become increasingly hostile to the government. The youth in particular are backing the National Unity Platform (NUP), led by opposition figure Robert Kyagulanyi, also known as Bobi Wine. At many public events, they have openly booed Museveni’s supporters, disrupting their speeches and showing their support for the opposition.
Kalinaki believes Museveni may not even bother trying to repair his relationship with Buganda. Instead, he might choose to keep the tension low and quiet. Analysts think this could be a clever political strategy. By keeping Buganda involved in some areas of government but sidelined in politics, Museveni avoids direct confrontation while still maintaining his control. Some have described this approach as “keeping the engine running while ignoring the squeaky wheel.”
In the end, the message is clear: Museveni’s strength lies in his control of the system, not in popularity. And as long as he holds the power behind the scenes, he may not need Buganda’s political support to keep his grip on the presidency.
