By Bwayo Geoffrey
The recent survey conducted by the New Vision Research Team, which covered 6,006 respondents across 58 districts and 17 sub-regions, aimed to gauge public perception of the forthcoming general elections. However, a closer look at the methodology reveals several potential issues that may impact the accuracy and reliability of the results, particularly for Bulambuli constituency.
One of the primary concerns is the representativeness of the sample. With a broad sample spanning multiple districts and sub-regions, it’s unclear whether the specific needs and opinions of Bulambuli’s 25,000 voters were adequately represented. The sample size for Bulambuli might be significantly smaller than the overall 6,006 respondents, which could lead to a larger margin of error and reduced reliability.
Furthermore, the sampling method used by the research team may have been random, but it’s unclear if it was stratified to ensure representativeness. If not, this could have introduced biases that further compromise accuracy.
Given these concerns, the survey’s conclusion that Isaac Katenya would win with 76.7% of the votes in Bulambuli constituency is questionable. A more tailored approach to sampling and ensuring representativeness for Bulambuli would have been necessary to produce reliable results.
The survey’s margin of error is also a crucial aspect to consider when evaluating its results. With a sample size of 6,006 respondents, a confidence level of 95%, and a population size of 25,000 (Bulambuli’s voters), the margin of error would ideally be around ±1.26%.
However, this calculation assumes a random sample that perfectly represents the population, which I doubt was the case with the New Vision survey.
Ideally, there are potential sources of error that impacted the result. Sampling error is a concern, as the New Vision Survey sample did not perfectly capture Bulambuli’s demographics. Furthermore, non-sampling errors, such as flaws in survey design, data collection and processing, could also affect the results.
Given these potential sources of error, that in turn impacted the margin of error when interpreting the survey results the outcome was already flawed. Therefore, caution should be exercised when drawing conclusions based on these results.
The New Vision’s report on July 8th, 2025, highlighted that most voters want change, which aligns with the sentiments of Bulambuli constituency. Hon Isaac Katenya is often referred to as the “mistake of Bulambuli,” and his term is almost coming to an end with nothing to show for his legislative work. Additionally, voters have expressed concerns about his approachability and the alleged bribery and embezzlement during his tenure as chairperson of the works committee.
Unlike the New Vision survey, which has been questioned for its methodology and accuracy, Bara Emmanuel Wepukhulu’s popularity in Bulambuli is rooted in tangible community development initiatives. Through the Biara Emmanuel Wepukhulu’s Foundation, he has made significant contributions to the area, including: providing piped water to residents of Nalondo, improving access to clean and safe water, supported over 150 women’s groups with agricultural inputs, boosting food security and income, offered full bursaries to high-achieving PLE candidates and distributing mathematical sets to P.7 students, promoting education empowerment, developed youth talent through early soccer identification and development programs, promoted environmental conservation by distributing over 500,000 tree seedlings, advocated for healthcare and infrastructure improvements, including upgrading Muyembe Health Centre IV to a General Hospital and lobbying for key road projects.
These initiatives demonstrate Biara’s genuine commitment to improving the lives of people in Bulambuli, earning him a strong following in the community.
While the New Vision Research Team’s efforts to gauge public opinion are commendable, the survey’s results for Bulambuli constituency fall short of providing a clear and accurate picture of the local sentiment. As the elections approach, it’s essential to consider these methodological limitations and potentially revisit the survey design to ensure more reliable and representative results.
The writer is a key opinion leader in the Elgon Zone. Tel: 0762589133
